Global warming could increase home runs in baseball games: SME

“They analyzed around 60 years of data from this sport and daily temperatures, where it was found that the air thinned by warmer conditions accounted for 1% of the home runs on average between the years 2010 and 2019.

Global warming might be increasing the chances of seeing a home run during the baseball season, as confirmed by a study from the American Meteorological Society.

According to the information published in their bulletin, around 60 years of data from this sport and daily temperatures were analyzed. It was found that the air thinned by warmer conditions accounted for 1% of the home runs on average between the years 2010 and 2019.

Therefore, it is expected that this small portion will increase to 10% by the year 2100 as temperatures rise throughout this century, making the baseball diamond a prism that shows the many ways our lives will be affected by a changing climate.

Analysis and results of the study

To prove this theory, 100,000 major league games and over 200,000 balls in play in recent years were analyzed, along with weather conditions, states, and other factors. The result: major league batters are seemingly more powerful than before, averaging 50 home runs a year.

According to Justin Mankin, co-author of the study and a climate scientist at Dartmouth, global warming is causing more home runs in Major League Baseball.

What does basic physics say?

It’s important to note that when the air heats up, the molecules move faster and spread apart, making the air less dense. Therefore, baseballs hit with a bat travel further through less dense air, as there is less resistance to slow the ball down.

According to Alan Nathan, a physicist from the University of Illinois who is part of a group of scientists that have consulted Major League Baseball about the increase in home runs, he made his own calculation. Based on the known physics of ballistics and air density that changes with temperature, he indicated that he obtained the same result as the Dartmouth researchers.

It’s worth noting that both Nathan and the Dartmouth team found a 1% increase in the likelihood of home runs for every degree of air warming. The Dartmouth researchers estimated that the annual average of home runs caused by global warming is only 1% of the total.

Non-climatic factors

According to the physicist from the University of Illinois, non-climatic factors also contribute to balls flying out of the park, as stated by scientists and veterans of the sport.

Nathan explained that the main factor is the ball and the size of the stitching points, and the MLB made minor adjustments to dampen the ball before the 2021 season.

Others include the recent focus of batters on the launch angle; stronger hitters and faster pitches, which led to an increase in home runs.

“We’ve always thought of it that way for years. When it’s hotter, the ball travels further, and they have scientific evidence to back it up,” said Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations for the Phillies.

The average temperature in the United States during the months of June, July, and August has increased by more than 2 degrees over the past 40 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Global warming: nighttime games and covered stadiums

Although the impact of climate change is currently small, it is detectable and will only increase with more warming, said Justin Mankin, a climate scientist at Dartmouth College and the lead author of the study.

In the future, the MLB might consider scheduling more nighttime games or playing more in covered stadiums, the authors say, especially if global warming continues unchecked.

With information from NPR, Science, AMS